Playoff chances and results

• FanGraphs, Playoff Odds. Daily chance of making the playoffs, of skipping the first round and of reaching the World Series, for every club, 2022 to September 17, 2026. This is the starting point for every price.fangraphs.com/standings/playoff-odds
• Wikipedia, club season pages. The date each club was mathematically eliminated. 48 dates are taken from these pages; 35 are estimated.en.wikipedia.org, for example "2022 Chicago Cubs season"
• Wikipedia, playoff series result tables. How many games every past series lasted: 112 Division Series, and 197 League Championship Series and World Series, through 2025. Also which playoff home games each club hosted from 2022 to 2025.en.wikipedia.org, Division Series, League Championship Series and World Series pages
• Major League Baseball schedule. The last day of each regular season, and the playoff format: who hosts which games in each round.mlb.com

Ticket prices

• MLB ticket price service, 2026 single-game prices. Public prices by section for all 81 home games, for the Braves, Cubs, Red Sox, Mets, Angels and White Sox. Used directly as those clubs' regular-season prices.mlb.com club ticket pages
• Club ticket revenue. Published estimates of each club's yearly ticket revenue, from Forbes' annual MLB team valuations, with one figure from Sportico for the Cubs. Divided by attendance to give an average ticket price for 22 clubs. The Cubs and Astros figures are estimates built from these.forbes.com, sportico.com
• Published average ticket prices. Used for the Cardinals ($39.49) and Mariners ($38.99), where no ticket revenue figure was found.
• Club season ticket price sheets. Reds, Rangers, Mariners, Phillies and Diamondbacks. Used only for the price gaps between sections, never for how high prices are.mlb.com club season ticket pages and pricing documents
• Reds 2025 playoff price sheet and Yankees 2026 playoff price grid. Prices offered to season ticket holders. Used only for how prices differ between sections in each round, and as a cross-check.mlb.com/reds, mlb.com/yankees
• Eight published public playoff prices. Dodgers, Blue Jays and Guardians: three Division Series prices, one League Championship Series price and four World Series prices, from news reports and club announcements. These set how much more a playoff ticket costs than a regular one.

Ballparks and sections

• Club seating maps and price lists. Section names for 17 clubs, including the Astros (Daikin Park 2025 seat map), Blue Jays (2027 season ticket seating map), Brewers (American Family Field seating map), Cardinals (Busch Stadium seating guide, January 2026), Marlins (general seating page) and the price sheets listed under Ticket prices.mlb.com club pages
• Independent seating guides. Section names for 12 clubs, from sources other than the club.
• Ballpark capacity and home attendance. Published capacity for each club's ballpark, and average home attendance for 2024.
• Seats in each section: estimate. Worked out from where each section sits between the cheapest and most expensive seats.

Research on how people respond to prices

• Tversky, A. and Kahneman, D. (1992). "Advances in prospect theory: Cumulative representation of uncertainty." Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 5(4), 297–323. The finding that people treat small chances as bigger than they are. Used for the surcharge on unlikely games.
• Wadhwa, M. and Zhang, K. (2015). "This Number Just Feels Right: The Impact of Roundedness of Price Numbers on Product Evaluations." Journal of Consumer Research, 41(5), 1172–1185. Round prices suit purchases made on feeling. Used for round prices. One later study did not repeat the result.
• Thomas, M. and Morwitz, V. (2005). "Penny Wise and Pound Foolish: The Left-Digit Effect in Price Cognition." Journal of Consumer Research, 32(1), 54–64. Why a price ending in 9 looks lower. Used for the optional "end lower prices in 9" setting.
• Schindler, R. M. (2001). "Relative Price Level of 99-Ending Prices: Image Versus Reality." Marketing Letters, 12(3), 239–247, and his 2011 commentary on prices ending in 9. Prices ending in 9 can lower the perceived quality of a product. Used for the default of round numbers.
• Thomas, M., Simon, D. H. and Kadiyali, V. (2010). "The Price Precision Effect: Evidence from Laboratory and Market Data." Marketing Science, 29(1), 175–190. Considered when choosing between round and exact prices.

The FanStub team's own figures

• Assumptions. The size-of-the-game figures, the 5% club surcharge, the 55% chance that the stronger club wins any one game, the 50% chance for each club in a Wild Card Series, and the 10% of seats set aside for FanStubs.
• Checks run on the model. The model's chances were compared with every playoff game from 2022 to 2025. The formulas were reviewed independently.
• Research papers. The model relies on published summaries and abstracts of these papers.

In plain words

• 1. Find the chance the game is played. A public baseball forecast gives each club's chance of making the playoffs every day. The model uses it to find the chance of each home game in each round.
• 2. Find the face value. This is the normal ticket price for that seat in that playoff game.
• 3. Multiply them. A seat with a $200 face value in a game that is 25% likely is worth about $50.
• 4. Add a surcharge on unlikely games. Fans pay more than the strict value for a small chance. Likely games have no surcharge.
• 5. Round and limit the price. The price is rounded to a round number. It is never above face value and never below the section minimum, which starts at $5.
• 6. Update every day. The price rises and falls with the club's chances.
• 7. End sales. Sales for a game end when the club is eliminated, when the regular season ends, or when the game is guaranteed to be played. A guaranteed game is sold as a normal ticket.

The chance a game is played

• Source. FanGraphs, a public baseball forecast, publishes three chances for every club every day: making the playoffs, getting a first-round bye, and reaching the World Series. The model uses these forecasts from 2022 to September 17, 2026.
• Rounds. The playoffs have four rounds: the Wild Card Series, the Division Series, the League Championship Series and the World Series. FanStubs are sold for the last three.
• Hosting. In each round, the club with the better record hosts one more game than its opponent. For the Division Series, the forecast gives the chance of hosting. For the later rounds, the model assumes a club with a first-round bye hosts the extra game more often than a club without one. The chances are scaled so that exactly one club hosts each series.
• Series length. The later games in a round are played only if no club has won the series yet, so they are less likely. The model uses past results. Of 112 Division Series, 34% ended in three games, 33% in four and 33% in five. Of 197 League Championship Series and World Series, 16% ended in four games, 25% in five, 28% in six and 31% in seven. The model gives a shorter series when one club is much stronger.
• A forecast of 0%. The forecast is published to one decimal place, so "0.0%" means "under 0.05%". While a club can still make the playoffs, its games stay on sale. Those FanStubs sell at the section minimum.

The face value

• Definition. Face value is the price the public pays for that seat in that playoff round. Each section has one face value for each round, in US dollars, rounded to the nearest dollar. The model uses the same face values for every season.
• Step 1: regular-season price. Six clubs (Braves, Cubs, Red Sox, Mets, Angels and White Sox) publish single-game prices for every 2026 home game. The model uses those prices directly. For the other clubs, the model divides ticket revenue by attendance. It raises the result by 36%, the usual gap between that average and the public price, then spreads it across sections.
• Step 2: price gaps between sections. A season-ticket price sheet shows how much more one section costs than another. The model uses these sheets only for the gaps between sections, not for the level of prices. Where a club has no sheet, the model uses the usual gaps.
• Step 3: playoff price. A playoff ticket costs more than a regular-season ticket. The playoff price is a base amount for the round ($59 for the Division Series, $93 for the League Championship Series, $276 for the World Series) plus about 1.4, 2.0 or 3.0 times the regular-season price. The base amounts come from eight published playoff prices for the Dodgers, Blue Jays and Guardians.
• Section names. Seventeen clubs use the names from their own maps or price lists. Twelve use names from independent seating guides. Two ballparks, Tropicana Field and the Oakland Coliseum, use general names. The number of seats in each section is an estimate.
• Ballparks. Each club's seat total is for the ballpark it would use for playoff games that season. This includes the Rays at Steinbrenner Field in 2025 and the Athletics in Sacramento.

The price

• Starting point. The price starts at the chance the game is played × the face value.
• Surcharge on unlikely games. Research shows that people treat a small chance as larger than it is. A 10% chance is treated as about 19%, and a 2% chance as about 8%. The model sets the price on that basis, so an unlikely game costs more than its strict value. The effect is small for likely games. (Tversky and Kahneman, 1992)
• Size of the game. A deciding game is worth more to a fan than game 1. Each game has a size figure, from 1.00 for the first Division Series home games to 1.60 for World Series game 7. These figures are assumptions.
• Club surcharge. The club adds 5%. The setting is under Assumptions.
• Round numbers. Every price is a round number: whole dollars under $20, then steps of $5 up to $200, $10 up to $1,000 and $50 above. An optional setting ends lower prices in 9. (Wadhwa and Zhang, 2015; Schindler, 2001)
• Limits. A price is never above face value. It is never below the price floor, which is the chance the game is played × the face value. It is never below the section minimum. The minimum is $5 for the club's lowest-priced section and rises with the regular-season price. A section that costs four times as much has a $20 minimum.
• Higher floor for unlikely games. For games under a 10% chance, the price floor is higher. It is double near 0% and returns to normal at 10%. This keeps the price from falling when the chance rises.

Sales and refunds

• When sales end. Sales for a game end in three cases: the club is eliminated, the regular season ends, or the game is guaranteed to be played. A guaranteed game is sold as a normal ticket. Until a club has clinched, a forecast of 100.0% is treated as 99.9%. Clinch dates for a playoff place come from published dates for 49 clubs and are estimated for 5. Clinch dates for a first-round bye are estimated. A club was eliminated in 83 seasons. The model uses a published date for 48 and an estimated date for 35. The Prices tab marks estimated dates.
• Refunds. If a game is not played, there is no refund and the fan keeps the FanStub. The fan gets a refund if the game moves to another ballpark, if the game is played without fans, or if a change to the playoff format removes the game. If a game is postponed, the FanStub is valid for the new date.
• Number sold. The model assumes every FanStub offered is sold. Sales are spread evenly over the days each game is on sale, each at that day's price. The Edit tab can set a different number per day or shift sales between months.

Limits of the model

• Chances. The model was compared with every playoff game from 2022 to 2025. It is more accurate than a single average chance for the Division Series. For the later rounds, four seasons are too few to show a difference.
• Face values. Face values are estimates, accurate to within about 25%. The League Championship Series estimate depends on one published price.
• Additional revenue. The total is a result of the assumptions, not a prediction. It assumes fans pay the surcharge on unlikely games and every FanStub offered is sold. No FanStub has been sold yet. Without the surcharge on unlikely games, the total is about half as large.
• Seasons with playoff games. When a club hosts playoff games, the FanStubs for those games sold for less than face value. In those seasons the club's revenue is lower than with normal tickets alone.
• 2026. The forecast data ends on September 17, 2026, and playoff results are not included. For 2026 the model shows FanStub revenue only.

Not included

• More than one forecast. The model uses FanGraphs alone. Combining it with other public forecasts is planned.
• Prices that change during games. Prices change once a day. Changing prices during games is planned.
• Prices that change with sales. Prices do not change with the number of FanStubs sold or left.

What fans are shown

• Face value. Shown next to the FanStub price for comparison.
• Chances. The chance a game is played is shown as a percentage, next to the club's chance of making the playoffs.
• Number left. Shown when three-quarters of a section's FanStubs are sold.
• Not shown. Crossed-out prices and countdown timers.